Two Different Experiences

 

The valley housing market remains what it has been for a few years now – a tale of two markets.  The sub-luxury market vs. the luxury market.  For much of the sub-luxury market, May of 2022 was the peak in pricing – with a subsequent correction downward of price that varied based on home size, area, and type of product (single family, manufactured homes, condos etc.)  The loss of value on single family homes varied from 4 -14%.  The picture erodes further when adjusted for inflation down to a loss of 13-22%!  There is a message here to buyers, with all the talk of the lack of affordable housing, housing is actually cheaper now than since 2022.  The same cannot be said of luxury properties.  Homes that are over 6000 square feet have risen in price approximately 32% and even when adjusted for inflation, over 15%.  Two very different markets having two very different experiences.

Another factor in the sub-luxury market that is different than luxury, is the distress market.  Delinquency is one of the bellwether’s of the sub-luxury market.  The Cromford Report shares these numbers:

Among listings under contract, 94.6% are normal, 1.5% are REOs, and 3.9% are pre-foreclosures (including a very small number of short sales). Distress is noticeably higher than last month and, though it remains low compared to the 25-year average, we are seeing a distinct upward trend in pre-foreclosure activity. Lender-owned listings remain low, suggesting that many pre-foreclosures are being resolved by sale before the trustee has to step in.

Normal listings represented 97.5% of listings under contract 12 months ago, so distress has clearly risen, which should serve as an early warning. However, we must keep it in perspective: between 2011 and 2012, the normal percentage was below 25%, and between 2013 and 2019 we averaged 85% normal. We are still better off than during that period, but the improving trend has reversed since 2022, especially in the last 6 months, and is now quietly flashing amber instead of green.

Trouble ahead?  Whatever this market brings, we will continue to report it to our wonderful clients first.

 

Russell & Wendy Shaw

(Mostly Wendy)